3 Questions about Putin and how did we get here?
Totalitarian Ideology is driving the war in Ukraine. Understand it to defeat it. Future threats if not stopped
Who is Mr. Putin today?
What ideology is driving him?
Why do we need to listen to what he says?
March 24, 2022
Who is Mr. Putin was a question people were asking in early 2000s. What does he really want? The latter lingered for many years, becoming extremely acute in December 2021. The least frequent question continues to be - why do we want to listen to him if he always lies.
These are three legitimate questions asked by anybody busy with their daily lives, getting their information from media sources, supposed to provide us with most accurate and objective information. These media outlets have access to all the so-called Russia’s experts, both in the West and in Russia itself, and should have a pretty good idea about Putin after 21 years. But do they? And that is the subject for another day. To be fair, we all got the clear answer to first question on February 24th. Still last two questions linger.
I believe and will attempt to show that the answer to the second question is also clear, yes we know what is driving him, however require some background on the ideological concept. The answer to the last one is the straightforward yes, we should listen. Putin was talking about his strategic intent publicly and repeatedly since 2007.
This essay does not intent to cover complete timeline and all the details. Doing so will require enormous amount of time and research and time is of the essence. You will see everything in broad strokes and supported by key facts. Before I go into analysis let me speak about many myths about Putin that circulate in the West and in Russia. This will help to frame the context of the answers as well as explain why these answers were ignored.
Myth #1 – Putin wants to rebuild the USSR (USSR 2.0)
Myth #2 – Putin is only interested in power and money and does not subscribe to any ideology
Myth #3 – Putin is a lucky tactician, a pure opportunist, acting in the moment and does not have any strategy behind his tactics
Myth #4 – Putin always lies because he is a former KGB spymaster that uses speech as deception
Events may have not started but were definitely influenced by Solzhenitsyn’s 1990 manifesto – “How should we arrange (the better translation is to rebuild) Russia”. He proclaimed that Ukraine and Russians are one people, came from one root and separation of Ukrainians is a “lie”. He claimed the same is true for Belarus with the small difference of no protracted national liberation movement. He claimed Kazakhstan is mostly Russian land, given to Kazakhs by communists to create a national republic with 50 percent Russian population.
He proclaimed that the nation is defined by “spirituality”, metaphysical substance that is hard to define and easy to interpret in many ways. According to him one of the founding pillars of this metaphysical substance is a common historical root. I can argue that common spirituality of the 200+ million people is unlikely to exist without a common religious doctrine.
Solzhenitsyn is a literary giant and deeply understands human nature, however his “One Nation” premise for Russia, Ukraine and Belarus goes against historical evidence and modern legal framework and customs defining Nations. For sceptics - we can use an example of any Slavic nations, like Russian, Czechs, Croats or Poles. They all came from one proto-Slavic people with one language in the beginning of the first millennia. However, all separated at least 1,400 years ago and build different nations, cultures and evolved languages. The same happened with Ukrainians and Belarusians but 700 years ago, with later incorporation into the Russian Empire and experienced the policy of cultural assimilation.
To be fair Solzhenitsyn did not talk about Orthodox Christianity as a common or founding religion. Maybe because he saw a major problem in that, so he might not be one of the founding fathers of current ideology. However, common religion flows as the obvious solution to this foundational problem and is also an older idea, after all. To be fair again, he did not come up with his concept from scratch. His idea is a reincarnation of the early XIX century movement of the Slavophilia [1]. The doctrine stated that all eastern Slavic states should be united under the Russian tsar and Eastern Orthodox religion. One of the differences, in those years, the protagonists were not sure where the Poles should be because of their strong Catholic devotion.
Solzhenitsyn came back to Russia in 1994 after previous exile from Soviet Union. National literature giant, Nobel prize laureate, spiritual fighter against communism, a true Russian hero, he became an instant idol and few who manage to be invited to the home of the private and secluded genius visited. Putin visited in September 2000, shortly after becoming the President of Russia. I am not sure if Putin was already influenced by the original article in 1990 that most people read. Or if this visit was the start of his current ideological beliefs, or his personal priest shared with him similar ideas in private or he read about it. It does not really matter. What matters is at some point he became a proponent of revised version of this ideology, now proclaimed as “Russki miir” (“Russian commonwealth”). Ideological concept where at the core is the “Russian” spirit, embodied by Russian people and Russian land.
“Russian spirit” is an ancient, metaphysical pre-Christian idea, incorporated into Russian mythology the same way some South American pagan traditions were incorporated into Catholic tradition.
Putin wants what this doctrine states:
· Unification of all eastern Slavic nations (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Northern Kazakhstan) and their historic territories into one state
· Head of that state is the Russian leader, the autocrat
· Land and people are united under spiritual guidance of Russian Orthodox church proselytizing “Russki miir” ideology into all levels of social fabric of this super-ethnical superstructure
By extended logic all other lands around that super-state are a sphere of influence consisting of friendly, neutral or client states. That is required as a buffer zone to protect “Russki miir” militarily, politically, economically and spiritually.
Now let’s talk about the evidence:
1. Putin Munich speech at 2007 Munich security conference announcing strategic confrontation
2. Putin continuous demands about sphere of influence, red lines and complains about not being heard since 2007. Repeatedly, consistently, and as public as possible.
3. 2007 start of strategic modernisation of the Russian military with the objective to be ready to conduct a major conventional war [2] in 2025-2030
4. Putin widely reported remark about Ukraine not being a “country” (real/independent state) when speaking to Bush in 2008. Public speeches since then
5. Invasion of Georgia, 2008 to rail in the neighbour attempting to break out of sphere of influence
6. Putin and Russian Patriarch (the head of the Russian Orthodox Church) were speaking publicly and repeatedly about “Russki miir” since 2000s. Their speeches reached fever pitch during so-called Russian spring in 2014. That year culminated in Putin’s annexation of Crimea and Russia’s initiated and military supported insurgency in Eastern Ukraine.
7. Putin categorically opposed and used all possible tools and tricks to block the separation of Ukrainian and Russian Orthodox Churches (2015-2019). Despite this “technically being a religious matter”, governed by communion of church’s’ Patriarchs under the spiritual leadership of the senior Universal Patriarch from Istanbul (former seat of the Eastern Orthodox church Constantinople). One church for “Russian nations”, one Patriarch is one of the 3 pillars of “Russki miir”
8. Putin in 2016 stated “Russian border ends nowhere”. As strange as it sounds, the Russian spirit is the core of “Russki miir”, embodied by Russian people and Russian land. There are “Russian” people all over the world per this ideological doctrine and therefore Russia is everywhere.
9. Finalisation of de-facto incorporation of Belarus into Union State in 2021, moving all strategic decisions under Putin. One Russian state, one Leader is one of the 3 pillars of “Russki miir”
10. Putin 2021 antihistorical essay on Ukraine theorising that Ukrainian independence is a mistake. Ukraine not being a real state, Russians and Ukrainians being one people, … among other things. It was published for everybody to see and was widely discussed.
11. Putin December 2021 ultimatum to the West with all kinds of red lines constructed to achieve everything that he talked about over the years and with a clear focus on Ukraine
12. Invasion of Ukraine in 2022 with the attempt to incorporate all, or the majority of people and territory to build the last of the 3 pillars of “Russki miir”
I believe this analysis demonstrates that Putin embraced the ideology. Therefore we know his intentions and his deeds. He formulated his strategy 2007 or before. He executed it, speaking about all key elements publicly, pre-emptively, repeatedly, and consistently. So, we know what he wants. I also believe that the reader can see now that all 4 myths are just that, myths.
In closing, the world sees the horror of the current aggression. However, if this ideology prevails there will be no peace, because Russki miir ideology is totalitarian at it’s core. It is also dangerous for any nation that either owns “historically Russian” land (North Kazakhstan, part of Estonia, etc.), “Russian claimed” land (South of Ukraine) or “Russian claimed” seabed (Canadian Arctic) or having significant number of “Russian speaking” people with Putin’s desire to bring them back into chimera.
This ideology challenges international law and UN charter. It challenges international procedures and customs related to recognition of modern Nation-states. Surprisingly, it is also a heresy under Eastern Orthodox doctrine, as stated by VOLOS ACADEMY FOR THEOLOGICAL STUDIES paper signed by more than 100 theologians [3].
Ukrainians with the material support of the Free world today are fighting on the ground forces unleashed by this ideology, fighting with valor and with deadly effectiveness. However, we need to acknowledge and defeat the ideology.
It takes the idea to defeat the idea – the wise man once said. Russians now have this collective challenge to formulate this idea.
Kirill Tikhomirov
March 2022, Free world
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1 - Slavophilia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slavophilia.
2 – Pavel Felgengauar 2015, prominent Russian military analyst in series of interviews in Russian press https://rusmonitor.com/felgengauehr-s-2007-goda-rossiya-gotovitsya-k-mirovojj-vojjne.html
3- VOLOS ACADEMY FOR THEOLOGICAL STUDIES, 2022 https://www.acadimia.org/en/news-announcements/press/963-a-declaration-on-the-russian-world-russkii-mir-teaching